Updated Aug 25, 2009 - 2:10 pm
State prepares for large swine flu load this fall
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MyNorthwest.com
If the federal government's latest forecasts are right, near half the U.S. could get sick from Swine flu this fall and winter.
The White House released a report from the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology that assessed the nation's swine flu preparations. The panel predicted 20 to 40 percent of the U.S. population will suffer swine flu symptoms this fall, and about half will get sick enough to go to the doctor.
The panel estimated the virus will cause between 30,000 and 90,000 deaths, concentrated among children and young adults. Seasonal flu, in contrast, kills an estimated 36,000 people every year.
Dr. Anne Marie Kimball, an Epidemiology expert at the University of Washington, told KIRO's Dave Ross that while media attention on the flu has waned since last spring, the general public concern was warranted. "For those of us who internationally have watched this flu, I don't think it was a false alarm, and I think this scenario, not a prediction, is very useful."
Kimball said the information released by the federal government might better help communities prepare. "You need a lot of community planning, a lot has already been done, but state and local health departments really need to get serious with their communities."
As she's watched the flu progression internationally, Kimball says the main problems have arisen from the huge number of people simultaneously infected that find themselves in need of medical attention. "There do tend to be hospitalizations at about the same rate as seasonal flu, but the problem is so many people are infected that you get a real surge on your health system."
Health teams are currently developing a vaccine for the H1N1 virus that will likely be available around Thanksgiving. Roughly 50 million doses of vaccine are expected to be available by mid-October.
Gordon McCracken with the Washington State Department of Health says its important that the vaccine be thoroughly tested prior to its release. "It's very important to make sure the testing process is complete to make sure that none of vaccine goes on the market before it can be absolutely certified that it's safe."
McCracken says while they're not sure that the federal government's scenario will unfold as predicted, the state wants to be prepared. "We don't know exactly what will happen, it's a very difficult thing to predict, but we want to be prepared for the worst case."
(Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)
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